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Weak dollar to keep recession at bay
By ANDREA JAMES
P-I Reporter
On a day when the financial markets took a beating and the Federal Reserve chairman told Congress that the housing market is a drag, more than 550 of Seattle's business leaders gathered for their own economic forecast event.
The meeting at the downtown Sheraton got off to a somber start. "The best thing about 2008: It's going to be over in 12 months," national labor economist Ken Goldstein said. He was later described as one of the "optimistic" economists.
The rest of the conference focused beyond this year, on the cutting-edge clean-technology business sector, which is approaching high tech and biotech in attracting intelligent minds and investment.
Goldstein, of New York research group the Conference Board, says that a recession won't occur, but things will slow down. "This question: recession, no recession -- forget about it. It feels like a recession.
"Bringing things home, Puget Sound-area economic forecaster Dick Conway said that this area will have a good ride in 2008 for four reasons: A national recession won't hit; the world economy is expanding and the dollar is weak, which helps Seattle; Washington's largest employers are hiring; and the area has a high rate of people moving here.
The 36th annual gathering was hosted by enterpriseSeattle, a public/private economic development organization founded in 1971.
Economists agreed that the rising price of commodities, such as milk and oil, is squeezing consumers. Yet there's a strange upside to rising energy costs -- they have in part buoyed the clean-technology industry more so than any threats of ice caps melting.
Unlike numerous economic graphs on display in the morning, which all trended down, the clean-technology graphs spiked up. For example, the number of energy-efficient, LEED-certified buildings in Seattle is expected to triple and surpass 100 by 2020, according to Colliers International.
Clean technology spans several areas, including renewable energy, eco-friendly architecture and transportation. The largest category is energy generation: More than $200 million was invested in the Pacific Northwest from 2002 to 2007, according to data presented at the conference.
The industry has changed from an outcry on cleaning up the environment to its current form, said John Balbach, managing partner of Cleantech Group LLC in San Francisco. It has been spurred by population growth, oil prices, desire for efficiency and climate change, he said.
Dozens of local clean-technology companies -- enterpriseSeattle estimates more than 400 -- have been formed.
Access to capital is still a big obstacle. The Northwest Energy Angels alliance, made up of 45 people, is looking for companies to invest in. It has reviewed 22 companies and funded four so far. Three years ago, the group was founded by Martin Tobias, the former CEO of Imperium Renewables. He left the biofuel company in December.
"These companies need a lot more money to get created than standard software companies," Tobias said.
Clean-technology companies face the inertia created by a well-established energy industry, he said. "The incumbent industries we are trying to change have more money than any of us, and they don't want to change."
But the capitalist system seems to be making it happen. The business set, which by nature isn't opposed to profit or more buildings, is lobbying for a cleaner environment because they've found ways to make money on it.
During Gov. Chris Gregoire's lunch address, business leaders gave her a standing ovation. "We will lead in green technology and green-collar jobs," she said.
It's an innovation similar to the one caused by information technology and globalization, said Ross Macfarlane, policy adviser at Climate Solutions in Seattle.
There are two ways to address the shift, he said. "You fight it like the buggy-whip manufacturers, or you get out ahead of it."
P-I reporter Andrea James can be reached at 206-448-8124 or
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